Tag Archives: trump

How America experiences Clinton & Trump, by Ryan Baum, @FocusVisionInfo #NewMR

Live note taking from the October 27, 2016 webinar. Any errors are my own.

  • Emotions evolved through natural selection and so are recognizable in humans regardless of language and culture
  • Pioneers
    • Paul Ekman, top psychologist noted by American Psychological Association and Time magazine, six basic emotions – anger, happiness, surprise, disgust, sadness, and fear
    • Robert Plutchik: Own emotion model added two more emotions to Ekman’s model – joy, trust, fear, surprise, sadness, anticipation, anger, and disgust. Plutchik’s model incorporates color so that rage is red, grief is blue, loathing is purple, colors we are familiar with
  • Valence: how positive or negative people feel about something. Neutral emotions are surprise or anticipation which can be positive or negative depending on the emotion, a good surprise or a bad surprise
  • What emotions do people feel towards the candidates? What intensity, what valence? And why do people feel this way?
  • GenPop USA of 2000 people who have seen or heard many things about both Clinton and Trump
  • Intent was not to predict but rather to understand voting behaviors so they included people who did and did not intend to vote
  • Audience invited to answer a survey: http://www.focusvision.com/Election2016 (oops! For USA people only so it looks like I want to vote but I refuse to J  )
  • People feel negative about both candidates, People feel the negative emotions at a higher intensity than the positive emotions, Independent voters feel equally negative about both candidates
  • Trump holds a monopoly on the surprise emotion
  • People feel more negative about trump in all regions, all ages and young people in particular, and all income groups
  • Based on open end verbatims they evaluated why those emotions were held for each candidate
    • Why does Hillary make people feel joy? Qualified, first female, good intentions, aligns with political views, best candidate
    • Why does Trump make people feel joy: Outspoken, new ideas, represents change, best candidate, aligns with political views, successful businessman, problem solver
    • Why does Hillary make people feelanger: dishonest, privileged, different political views, pro-choice on abortion
    • Why does Trump make people feel angry: bigot, egotistical, unfit, bad intentions, ignorant, bully, dishonest
    • Why does Hillary make people feel anticipation: winning, first female president, future accomplishment
    • Why does Trump make people feel anticipation: change, winning, what will he say or do next, actions as president
    • Why does Hillary make people feel fear: distrust, unfit, uncertainty, personal agenda, safety of our nation, no change from Obama, loose freedom, gun rights
    • Why does Trump make people feel fear: reckless, unfit, bigot, damage relationships, hateful agenda
    • Why does Hillary make people feel surprise: made it this far, first female president
    • Why does Trump make people feel surprise: outlandish remarks, made it this far, unpredictable, changes his mind
    • Why does Hillary make people feel sadness: dishonest, don’t want her to win, will hurt country, no change, poor past decisions, wanted Bernie to win, only wins because trump is worse
    • Why does Trump make people feel sad: offensive, people support him, he might win, will hurt America, no better republican
    • Why does Hillary make people feel trust: political experience, good intentions, similar political views
    • Why does Trump make people feel trust: businessman, outspoken, not a career politician, loves American, good intentions
    • Why does Clinton make people feel distrust: privileged, pro-choice, her husband’s affair, cunning, different political views
    • Why does Trump make people feel disgust: hateful, bigot, reckless, ignorant, rude, bully, egotistical
  • Candidates are trusted within their own party
  • 88% of millennials feels anger towards trump, 61% of females feel anticipation towards Clinton
  • People who like trump says he’s outspoken but people who don’t like him say he is hateful
  • Emotions are best measured over time
  • Now live results from the questionnaire we just answered (keep in mind the audience is researchers who know how questionnaires work, not people necessarily answering honestly)

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2016: The year of the outsider #PAPOR #MRX 

live blogged at #PAPOR in San Francisco. Any errors or bad jokes are my own.

The Summer of Our Discontent, Stuart Elway, Elway Research

  • regarding state of Washington
  • it’s generally democratic
  • between elections, more people are independents and then they drift to democrat
  • independents are more social liberals
  • has become more libertarian
  • don’t expect a rebellion to start in Washington state
  • [sorry, too many details for me to share well]

Californian’s Opinion of Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, PPIC

  • California regularly elects outsiders – Reagan, Schwarzenegger
  • flavour is often outsider vs insider, several outsiders have run recently
  • blog post on the topic – http://ppic.org/main/blog_detail.asp?i=1922
  • they favour new ideas over experience
  • 3 things are important – approval ratings of elected officials, people who prefer outsiders give officials lower approval, negative attitudes of the two party system
  • majority think a third party is needed – more likely to be interested in new ideas over experience
  • [sorry, too many details for me to share well]

Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What 50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen & Kevin Stay, SurveyMonkey

  • 38% of people said they’d be scared if trump is the GOP nominee
  • 25% would be surprised
  • 24% would be hopeful
  • 21% would be angry
  • 14% would be excited
  • List is very different as expected between democrats and republicans, but not exactly opposite
  • quality polling is scale, heterogeneity , correctable self-selection bias
  • most important quality for candidates is standing up for principles, strong leader, honest and trustworthy – experience is lowest on the list
  • Views on Trump’s Muslim statement change by the minute – at the time of this data: 48% approve, 49% disapprove, split as expected by party
  • terrorism is the top issue for republicans; jobs AND terrorism are top for independents; jobs is top for democrats
  • for republicans – day before paris 9% said terrorism was top, after paris 22%
  • support for Cruz is increasing
  • half of trump voters are absolutely certain they will vote for trump; but only 17% of bush voters are absolutely certain
  • among republicans, cruz is the second choice even among trump voters
  • trump has fewer voters who go to religious services weekly, least of all candidates; carson and cruz are on the high end
  • trump voters look demographically the same but carson has fewer male voters and cruz has fewer female voters
  • trump voters are much less educated, rubio voters are much more educated
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