live blogged at #PAPOR in San Francisco. Any errors or bad jokes are my own.
The Summer of Our Discontent, Stuart Elway, Elway Research
- regarding state of Washington
- it’s generally democratic
- between elections, more people are independents and then they drift to democrat
- independents are more social liberals
- has become more libertarian
- don’t expect a rebellion to start in Washington state
- [sorry, too many details for me to share well]
Californian’s Opinion of Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, PPIC
- California regularly elects outsiders – Reagan, Schwarzenegger
- flavour is often outsider vs insider, several outsiders have run recently
- blog post on the topic – http://ppic.org/main/blog_detail.asp?i=1922
- they favour new ideas over experience
- 3 things are important – approval ratings of elected officials, people who prefer outsiders give officials lower approval, negative attitudes of the two party system
- majority think a third party is needed – more likely to be interested in new ideas over experience
- [sorry, too many details for me to share well]
Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What 50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen & Kevin Stay, SurveyMonkey
- 38% of people said they’d be scared if trump is the GOP nominee
- 25% would be surprised
- 24% would be hopeful
- 21% would be angry
- 14% would be excited
- List is very different as expected between democrats and republicans, but not exactly opposite
- quality polling is scale, heterogeneity , correctable self-selection bias
- most important quality for candidates is standing up for principles, strong leader, honest and trustworthy – experience is lowest on the list
- Views on Trump’s Muslim statement change by the minute – at the time of this data: 48% approve, 49% disapprove, split as expected by party
- terrorism is the top issue for republicans; jobs AND terrorism are top for independents; jobs is top for democrats
- for republicans – day before paris 9% said terrorism was top, after paris 22%
- support for Cruz is increasing
- half of trump voters are absolutely certain they will vote for trump; but only 17% of bush voters are absolutely certain
- among republicans, cruz is the second choice even among trump voters
- trump has fewer voters who go to religious services weekly, least of all candidates; carson and cruz are on the high end
- trump voters look demographically the same but carson has fewer male voters and cruz has fewer female voters
- trump voters are much less educated, rubio voters are much more educated
