Keynote: Demographic Shifts Are Moving Your Markets by Joel Kotkin #ISC2015 #MRX


MRALive blogged from the 2015 MRA Insights & Strategies Conference, June 3-5, 2015 in San Diego. Any errors or bad jokes are my own.

  • Future drivers of growth: rise of opportunity city, persistent of suburbia, critical importance of housing affordability particularly for families, canaries in the coalmine like seniors millennials and immigrants
  • we’re no longer in an era where income correlates with housing prices, housing prices are 6 times the income not 3 times
  • recently biggest growth has been Houston, dallas, Denver, san fran, Miami
  • Fastest for STEM jobs has been Detroit, Houston, San Fran, Seattle, Denver, Dallas
  • NY can’t compare to silicon valley at all, their area is media
  • Two success approaches – opportunity vs luxury – economic diversity, reduction of poverty, affordable housing, middle class job opportunities are things the luxury cities don’t have
  • net migration is highest for dallas, Houston, Denver, Seattle; lowest for new york, Chicago, LA, Detroit
  • Affordability is worst in san fran, LA, new york, Miami, Boston, Seattle; san fran ratio will hit a ratio of 10 very soon where it’s normally 3 (house price to income ratio)
  • wealthy classes go to certain cities because they can afford to
  • consumer housing preferences are 80% for a detached house, 8% want an apartment, 3% want a mobile home
  • suburbs continue to grow out much faster
  • 25% of people want to live in rural areas, 50% want suburbs
  • millennials have high student debt, plunging home ownership, millennials are moving to suburbs
  • population is growing fastest in Miami, Detroit, Houston, Denver, they are hidden millennials
  • 80% of millennials also want to own a home
  • millennials might have not had the exposure to small town life like previous generations
  • millennials aren’t as different as we like to think
  • but, they do have less money to spend so it will take them 5 to 10 years long to get things also they will also live 5 to 10 years longer than previous generations
  • word has gotten out that you can’t afford to live in certain cities so millennials arent going there
  • millennials are not perpetually 20 years old
  • in 2018, millennials will be more likely over age 28
  • 70% want to get married, 74% want to have kids
  • couples need 2.1 kids to maintain a population. many places are now at 1.3 which means declining populations in those areas
  • opportunity cities have more children
  • seniors are a prime target for marketers – the young old as opposed to the old old
  • young old are over 60 but active, maybe work, drive
  • household growth will be largest among 65+ households and the vast majority of wealth belongs to these people
  • most retirees don’t plan to move or they plan to stay in their community
  • people move to be closer to family, to reduce expenses, or because of a change in health
  • immigrants are more likely to start a business than native born, they know where the best bargain is
  • don’t believe what you read in the newspaper, check the statistics
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